The prospect of peace with Saudi Arabia is the new fad, the ultimate prize that will come to fruition in the coming Jewish year. Something that one can imagine with starry eyes; we are willing to pay anything to get it done. This is, at least, the sentiment among media pundits, the newspaper editors, and the prime minister's orbit.

Perhaps we cannot outright deny the possibility that the unexpected will happen, but it would be advisable to lower expectations.

Squaring the nuclear circle
At first, there was talk about small-scale normalization between Riyadh and Jerusalem. Then it was expanded to include "the end of the Israeli-Arab conflict." Now it has already morphed into a vision of "reconciliation between Israel and the Sunni world," namely, from Morocco to Indonesia. For all this to get done, there has to be an economic-defense-diplomatic alliance between the US and Saudi Arabia, with normalization being one of its byproducts.

However, deals between the US and Saudi Arabia pose a major challenge because they would involve a US pledge to defend Saudi Arabia against external attacks. In addition, the Saudis have made demands that could be problematic for Israel, chiefly among them the request to have nuclear enrichment for "civilian purposes." They have also been coveting sophisticated weapon systems such as the F-35 fighter jet.

But there is more. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his people also want a boost in trade relations between the countries, ending the criticism over the Khashoggi murder. The US cannot fulfill a lot of what the Saudis want. For starters, President Joe Biden can't censor the media. Second, it will be almost impossible to get a two-thirds majority in the Senate for a treaty that would have the US commit to defend Saudi Arabia from Iran, as Riyadh wants.

Under the US Constitution, the Senate has to approve a treaty by a two-thirds majority, meaning at least 67 senators. But in the current political climate, there is no enthusiasm for Middle East wars on both sides of the aisle. 

Moreover, peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be a great political feat for Biden. Despite their love of Israel, it's hard to see how the Republicans help lift him from rock-bottom polls on the eve of an election. 

Donald Trump has been on the rise and he has been running neck and neck with the incumbent. Why should he give him a gift? Moreover, as has been reported in this paper, Trump has a score to settle with Netanyahu. So long as Netanyahu doesn't find a way to put the bygones behind them, the former president will have all the reasons to say that "the deal Biden has reached with Saudi Arabia is terrible and I will bring a better deal." 

This will have the effect of creating momentum against the deal in the GOP. This is not just my assessment; this is what senior Israeli officials believe. Netanyahu may claim that he will get 15 Republican senators to support the deal, but Trump has yet to speak on the matter. If that happens, it's hard to see how the deal gets passed.

Abbas slams the brakes

When the US called the Palestinians, Abbas picked up the phone, he provided Blinken with a laundry list of demands. They include a demand to reopen the US consulate in Jerusalem for the Palestinians, which has been a red line for previous governments in Israel because this would essentially mean a de facto division of the capital. The Palestinians are certain to demand more territory in Judea and Samaria and to see a halt to IDF operations in Palestinian cities and a settlement moratorium. Because, after all, wouldn't it be just easy peasy to solve the Palestinian conflict as an afterthought of a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia that is a byproduct of a US-Saudi pact?

It might sound like a joke, but if Abbas rejects, then Jordan's weak king – who is wary of the Palestinian and Muslim Brotherhood-majority population, would also be affected. And if those two are against the deal, then bin Salman will have a very hard time finalizing it.

Biden is no Trump
With all that in mind, one has to also look at the situation inside Washington. Or perhaps that should be the first thing we should look at. It is no coincidence that National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who is Biden's point man on the Saudi normalization issue, said in recent days that no breakthrough was expected in the near term.

The reason is that Biden, despite sending his people to the region to speak with players and to examine their requests, and iron out various disagreements, has yet to decide to go all in for normalization. In his three years as president so far, unlike Trump, he has not shown many daring moves.

As a very seasoned politician, he has been subscribing to only measured steps. He has been maneuvering between various pressure points in search of compromise. It's hard to see how he makes a dramatic and bold break toward some big move.

Historical shifts – especially in this region – don't happen under the limelight, if the past is prologue; they happen behind closed doors. This includes the peace treaty with Egypt, the Oslo peace process, and the Abraham Accords. In all three instances, secret backchannel communications preceded the public declarations. In the current situation, there is a lot of talk but very little results to show for.

Paying dearly
So of course, despite all the challenges, and in the face of all the obstacles, we could eventually wake up some two or three weeks from today to find out that a dramatic breakthrough had been announced. I wish. The only problem is that by the time it arrives, if it arrives, Israel will have already paid dearly so that it would avoid friction with the US.

The scope of terrorism speaks for itself. In Jenin, terrorist hotbeds are getting bigger and look a lot like what we saw during the early 2000s. The decision not to go all out against them but rather to tread lightly has backfired big time. The administrative detentions used against right-wing activists are a result of pressure from Washington, as a means of showing Biden that Israel was "cracking down on Jewish terrorism." New construction permits for settlement communities will not be issued through 2023.

What's worse is that despite there being a de facto deal between Iran and the US, which allows Tehran to enrich uranium to 60% purity, Netanyahu has been practically silent on the issue – and this is the same person who locked horns with Barack Obama over the 2015 deal. Or as the previous Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu said," The silence on the part of the prime minister in the face of the existential threat from a nuclear Iran is nothing short of mind-boggling."

Source: Ariel Kahana - Telegram