Since October 2023, Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in a war of attrition, with varying intensities. Hezbollah has suffered significant losses, but Israel has also paid a high price. Alongside casualties and damage to infrastructure, tens of thousands of Israelis have been forced to leave their homes, particularly in the Galilee region, which Hezbollah aims to "conquer." While it cannot achieve this, Hezbollah has succeeded in depopulating the area.

For years, the Jewish population in the Galilee has been declining, unrelated to Hezbollah. Before the war, Jews made up less than 15% of the Galilee's population. Now, some who have left may relocate elsewhere in Israel, further reducing the Jewish presence. Israel must reverse this trend and strengthen its hold on the Galilee, not just through military action but by protecting both Jewish and Arab residents.

Since its establishment, Israel has conducted several campaigns and operations in Lebanon, starting with the War of Independence, through the conflicts with the PLO in the 1960s and 1970s, culminating in the Lebanon War of 1982. Afterward, Hezbollah replaced the PLO as the dominant force in Lebanon. Hezbollah is committed to the struggle against Israel but is more focused on strengthening its control over Lebanon than on Palestinian objectives.

Since the Lebanon War of 2006, the northern border has experienced relative calm for 17 years, with almost no severe incidents. This is a significant achievement for Israel, even though it coincided with Hezbollah's strengthening. While Hezbollah has assisted Palestinians in their struggle against Israel, it has avoided direct involvement in conflicts with Hamas until the current war. Therefore, Israel should aim to return to the situation that existed before October 6, 2023, despite the frustration and difficulties involved.

Hezbollah claims it will continue the war of attrition as long as the fighting in Gaza persists. Although the fighting is waning, as long as there is no official end, Hezbollah still launches attacks on Israel. There is no certainty that an Israeli declaration of an end to the Gaza conflict will prompt Hezbollah to stop its war of attrition, but it would clarify that a different solution is needed. Indirect diplomatic negotiations with Hezbollah, through the United States and others, might lead to a deadlock, leaving Israel with only military options.

In the 1990s, following the ongoing war of attrition while the IDF was deployed in Lebanon, Israel conducted two major operations: "Accountability" in 1993 and "Grapes of Wrath" in 1996. These operations were primarily based on firepower and led to limited results, continuing the war of attrition. Today, the IDF's firepower is much stronger, but it should not rely on it alone. The IDF can conduct a broad maneuver, with experience gained from fighting in Gaza potentially aiding operations in Lebanon. A ground operation in Lebanon could also expedite the end of the conflict and destroy targets that are difficult to eliminate with firepower alone.

However, the IDF needs time to allow its soldiers to rest from the intense fighting in Gaza, improve various aspects, and establish additional units. This is essential because Hezbollah is more skilled and stronger than Hamas. Additionally, a broad ground incursion into Lebanon would heavily burden and entangle Israel, which does not want to return to the Lebanese quagmire. It is important to remember that while continuing the war of attrition in the north is costly, the price of a large-scale operation against Hezbollah could be even higher, even if both sides restrain themselves to avoid a full-scale conflict.

In any case, Israel should not delude itself into thinking it can eradicate Hezbollah, a nearly impossible task. While Hezbollah can be significantly weakened, the more Israel seeks to diminish its power, the higher the price it will pay.

In conclusion, as a last resort, if Hezbollah insists on continuing the war of attrition and diplomacy fails, Israel should consider a relatively limited action aimed at ending the war of attrition without escalating into a full-scale war. This is a problematic and complex compromise, but it is preferable to the alternatives.

Image - Tsahi Ben-Ami/Flash90