Sources in Baghdad claim that the Lebanese Hezbollah organization is asking the leadership of the “Coordination Framework” – the body that unites the pro-Iranian Shiite parties in Iraq – to pressure Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to freeze trade with the Lebanese government as “punishment” for its initiative to disarm the organization.

Such a move could be a severe blow to the Lebanese economy, as Iraq is among Lebanon’s five largest trading partners. Among other things, Lebanon exports food, medicine and light industrial products to Iraq worth up to $400 million a year. In addition, Lebanon has signed special oil agreements with Iraq that help it cope with a severe fuel shortage.

The likelihood that the Iraqi Prime Minister will agree to freeze relations with Lebanon in favor of Hezbollah is not high. However, Hezbollah's very demand indicates that it has no red lines to prevent the implementation of the decision, even at the cost of the collapse of Lebanese businesses.