The US military operation carried out this morning, which resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, has created a highly complex situation regarding the country’s leadership succession and raised several competing scenarios.
At a press conference, US President Donald Trump stated: “We will manage the country until the moment we can carry out a safe, proper, and responsible transition. We do not want to be involved in installing someone else and ending up with the same situation we’ve had for many years.”
A scenario of external control is not anchored in Venezuelan constitutional law and would bypass established domestic succession mechanisms. Its implementation would depend on the US ability to establish effective control on the ground and gain at least minimal international or domestic legitimacy. Alternatively, the statement may be intended primarily as political pressure on existing power centers.
From a constitutional perspective, if governing institutions in Caracas continue to function, the key question is how Maduro’s status is defined. Declaring a “temporary absence” would allow the system to prolong the status quo and buy time. Declaring an “absolute absence,” however, would trigger a 30-day countdown to presidential elections.