Kan pollster Dudi Hassid commented on reports that Israeli society has undergone a cultural shift since the October 7th massacre.

Approximately one-third of the country's population now describes itself as more right-wing.

With this Hassid notes: “There are more than a few people who define themselves as right-wing, but do not want anything to do with Netanyahu. A space has been created between his ratings and those of Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, former Mossad director Yossi Cohen, and so on.”

“When the public is shown organization on the right without Netanyahu, which for the moment we will call ‘the nationalist secular right', although it could be called by any number of names, the results become much higher," Hassid commented.

Regarding Gideon Sa'ar’s decision to split his party from the National Unity party in an attempt to build a new right-wing political block, Hassid believes that "Sa'ar does not have particularly high political appeal."

A survey conducted by the Midgam Institute for Channel 12 News, after Minister Gideon Sa'ar split from the National Unity Party, shows that Sa'ar's New Hope Party would win five seats.

According to the data, Benny Gantz and Blue and White win 33 seats compared to the 35 they won in a previous poll. Likud wins 17 seats. Yesh Atid gains one seat and wins 13, and Shas wins 11 seats.

Yisrael Beytenu also wins 11 seats, Otzma Yehudit 8, United Torah Judaism 7, New Hope 5, Hadash-Ta'al 5, Ra'am 5 and Meretz 4.

In such a situation, the bloc of opponents of the current government wins 71 seats (including Blue and White and Hadash-Ta’al), the Netanyahu bloc wins 44 seats, with New Hope and its 5 seats in the middle.

The poll also examined a scenario in which former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett runs as the leader of a right-wing party. In this scenario Blue and White weakens to 28 seats, Likud wins 18, Bennett's party wins 12 and Yesh Atid wins 12 as well. Shas wins 11 seats, Yisrael Beytenu 10, Otzma Yehudit 8, United Torah Judaism 7, Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am with 5 seats each and Meretz wins 4 seats. Sa’ar’s New Hope does not pass the electoral threshold.

Respondents to the poll were also asked about a situation in which Gideon Sa'ar, Naftali Bennett and former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen run together in one right-wing party. In this situation, the Blue and White Party wins 25 seats, the Likud 17 and the Sa’ar-Bennett-Cohen alliance also wins 17.

The party led by the three men would tip the scales as the opposition bloc obtains 61 seats with Blue and White, and the bloc making up the parties in the current coalition wins 42.

However, according to a survey published by Channel 14 on Wednesday, Israeli Minister-without-Portfolio Gideon Sa’ar’s decision to break up his partnership with Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party could be the key to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remaining in power.

If Israel were to hold general elections today, Netanyahu’s existing coalition of right-wing and religious parties would garner 56 mandates, five short of a 61-seat majority in parliament.

Yet with Sa’ar’s expected six Knesset seats, the bloc could potentially reach 62 mandates, according to the Channel 14 poll.

Meanwhile, with Sa’ar gone, Gantz’s left-wing National Unity Party is projected to win 22 seats, down four from a Feb. 13 survey.

Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu hold steady over the prior poll and remain at 12 and 9 seats respectively, while the far-left Meretz Party gains one mandate, from four to five.

The various Arab parties, which Channel 14 counts separately though other media outlets include within the opposition bloc, earn 10 seats.

Two factions fail to get enough support to reach the 3.25% minimum threshold to enter the Knesset: the Arab Balad Party and the Labor Party, which ruled Israel for decades.

Right-wing bloc:  Likud – 25, Shas – 10, Otzma Yehudit – 9, United Torah Judaism – 8, Religious Zionism – 4

Total: 56 mandates

Left-wing bloc: National Unity – 22, Yesh Atid – 12, Israel Beitenu – 9, Meretz – 5

Total: 48 mandates

Five months after the National Unity Party joined the Netanyahu-led wartime government, Sa’ar announced on Tuesday that he and three other lawmakers were parting ways with Gantz. Tensions between the two had reportedly soared in recent months, as Sa’ar sought to return to the right-wing camp while Gantz stuck to his left-wing principles.

“I respect my friends, the representatives of National Unity in the War Cabinet, but unfortunately, they do not express in it the voice, positions and emphases I would bring there,” Sa’ar stated at a press conference in Tel Aviv, in reference to Gantz and fellow National Unity member Gadi Eizenkot.

On Wednesday, the Knesset House Committee green-lit Sa’ar’s request to split off and re-establish his New Hope Party. The party vowed to “clearly express the national and statesmanlike worldview” and demanded it be given a spot on the War Cabinet.

Sources in Netanyahu’s Likud Party dispelled rumors that Sa’ar’s announcement had been coordinated with the premier and noted that no decision had been made regarding his demands. However, the sources said they believe Netanyahu’s response will be positive since Sa’ar now provides an insurance certificate for the government during the war.

Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected calls by some members of the opposition for him to resign and for elections to be held. The next national vote is scheduled to be held no later than Oct. 27, 2026.

MK Yifat Shasha-Biton, who joined the New Hope Party alongside Sa’ar, stated on Wednesday: “We will not join Likud, and we will not go with Netanyahu. We want to bring out the voice of…the moderate right.”

Sa’ar, for his part, said that although “there is no person in Israeli politics who has fought Benjamin Netanyahu more than I have,” Hamas’s Oct. 7 terror massacre of 1,200 people in the northwestern Negev has led to a change in the “national agenda and focus.”