According to Lehav, today's Syria risks becoming the "new Afghanistan"—a country that outwardly projects openness to the West, yet in reality is controlled by jihadist forces. Israel is acting wisely by establishing regional balances, creating security zones, and strengthening its deterrent capabilities.

Israel is justifiably concerned about the formation of a new axis: Erdoğan's Turkey, al-Julani’s Syria, and Qatar replacing Jordan—an alliance potentially cooperating with terror groups in the West Bank and Gaza. This "Sunni axis" could replace the current Iranian-Shiite one and is considered an even greater threat. The key challenge: prevent the rise of this radical Sunni bloc and ensure Syria doesn't become a terror hub threatening Israel's borders and regional stability.

Turkey, under Erdoğan, plays a central role in supporting al-Julani. Erdoğan envisions himself as a "modern sultan" in a renewed Ottoman vision, aspiring to turn Syria into a Turkish protectorate. While Turkey is a problematic actor, it remains a key player—and its growing influence should concern Israel.

Lehav reiterates his warning that Syria might become a jihadist-controlled state under a deceptive Western-friendly façade. He stresses the urgency of stopping al-Julani’s jihadist forces from reaching Israel’s northern border. The current ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon is a strategic opportunity for Israel to demand their disarmament and establish a security buffer.

Israel also made a sound strategic move by supporting the Druze in southern Syria, despite internal disagreements. This created a buffer zone that blocked the advance of al-Julani’s forces.

Lehav emphasizes that al-Julani has never truly abandoned his jihadist identity. Though his image has changed and he presents a more “moderate” message—especially in Western-facing speeches—his core ideology remains intact. Behind the scenes, his inner circle promotes extremist rhetoric, aiming to eliminate minorities to "purify Syria."

While not all factions support al-Julani—many view him as a traitor who betrayed jihadist ideals—he remains a powerful figure, especially in Idlib. His forces include former ISIS members backed by Turkey, some of whom were involved in a recent massacre. These forces, displaying ISIS symbols, reflect how al-Julani’s regime integrates elements once seen as pure terrorism.