A JCFA analysis argues that the US-Iran memorandum strengthens Tehran and Hezbollah, but also gives Israel and Lebanon a chance to reframe the battlefield around Iranian interference.
The US-Iran memorandum is not merely a ceasefire. According to a new analysis by Aviram Bellais at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs, it risks giving Iran and Hezbollah the one thing they need most: time to recover, rebuild, and turn Lebanon once again into the forward operating base of Iran’s regional war doctrine.
The article argues that Iran’s proxy strategy has been badly damaged.
Hamas has been crushed, the Syrian route has been cut, and the war reached Iranian territory itself. That leaves Hezbollah as Tehran’s most important remaining tool for projecting power across the region. A ceasefire that leaves Hezbollah intact, therefore, does not end the next war. It prepares it.