Iran’s first technique is the blame game: repeat that every violation, attack or breakdown is the enemy’s fault until the accusation becomes the dominant public impression. Most people will not examine the detailed clauses of an agreement, but they will remember the allegation repeated again and again.

The second technique is the creation of a “renegade element.” When Western ships are attacked, Tehran can claim the regime was not responsible and blame an unidentified group acting independently. Dr. Schleifer argues that this is the same method used for decades by Palestinian organizations, with Hamas blaming Palestinian Islamic Jihad whenever it wanted to avoid responsibility for attacks from Gaza.

The purpose is to create a gray area in which nothing appears certain. Once doubt enters Western decision-making, leaders hesitate, demand more intelligence and postpone retaliation. Each hesitation produces a small Iranian success.