On Al-Hurra's website, Lebanese analysts state that although Hezbollah threatens the IDF, they recognize that resuming hostilities would spell its total demise.
“Hezbollah’s recent threats come within the framework of verbal intimidation and internal tension, without changing anything about the reality on the ground,” as writer and political researcher George Al-Aqouri sees it, stressing, “It is most likely just a smokescreen, as the party is no longer what it was before October 7, and will not return to that situation as a result of the severe blow that its structure and supplies were subjected to, the major transformations that the region witnessed, and the collapse of the axis of resistance.”
Al-Aqouri stressed in an interview with Al-Hurra that it is impossible for Hezbollah to regain its previous capabilities, attributing this to several factors, including “the large human losses it has suffered, including thousands of its cadres, which makes it difficult for it to quickly compensate for them, as well as the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, which represented a vital artery for the party, a link with Iran, and a safe haven for its stores.
In addition to that, its supply routes are now under strict international control, whether through Syria or the land, sea, and air entrances to Lebanon.”
He added, "Today, the axis of resistance has become ruins, unable to regain its old form, which was represented by a crescent extending from Iran to Lebanon, passing through Syria, and even to Gaza via Hamas. This era has ended and has become part of the past."
Accordingly, Hezbollah’s statements aim primarily, as Al-Aqouri sees it, to “send internal messages to try to revive its declining influence,” noting that these attempts seem futile, and stressing that “the party’s influence that existed will not return under any circumstances.”
Likewise, writer and political researcher Dr. Makram Rabah believes that Hezbollah’s threats are “unrealistic,” stressing that “the party, through (Shiite) Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, has given up its weapons, and what it is now seeking to achieve is to transform this loss into an internal victory, by affirming its right to keep these weapons.”
Rabah told Alhurra that developments on the ground, especially after the fall of the Assad regime, made these threats seem baseless and merely a "political innovation, if not a farce."
For his part, retired Brigadier General Dr. Hisham Jaber considers that “Hezbollah’s media stance is normal, especially with the continued Israeli violations of the truce agreement,” and explains that “the party’s incubating environment (the Lebanese society) has begun to raise questions about its policy, especially since that environment was not consulted when the decision to go to war was made,” which led to suffering that he described as a “calamity.”
In an interview with Al-Hurra, Jaber, head of the Middle East Center for Studies and Public Relations, points out that the questions within the party’s environment relate to commitment to the recent agreement with Israel, “as some believe that the party alone committed to the terms of the agreement, while Israeli violations continue.”