Researchers examining the dynamics of last year’s Israeli judicial reform debate warned that the phenomenon of “false consensus” is quickly entrenching people’s views on this contentious issue.

False consensus is a cognitive bias where people overestimate the extent to which their values or opinions are shared by others. This can lead to a distorted perception of social norms and affect decision-making.

“We were surprised by how quickly polarization over this newly emerging issue developed and the strong false consensus effect we observed,” said Bar-Ilan University researcher Dr. Maayan Katzir. “People were convinced that their camp was the majority, no matter their actual opinion. This is a serious issue because when each side is certain they represent the majority, they are less willing to compromise, which maintains and deepens polarization.”