The memo warns that sanctions could halt Iranian oil sales entirely, plunging the country into a deep economic crisis. It notes that such a crisis could “escalate public dissatisfaction” and trigger “social threats,” phrases widely understood in security circles as code for fears of mass protests or even a popular uprising.

This assessment reveals that Iran’s security services are acutely aware of the country’s fragile situation. Recent high-level security leadership changes suggest the regime is worried about possible collapse.

In this context, Ali Larijani, the new secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, recently visited Lebanon and Iraq to address the regional fallout from Iran’s weakening influence. His visit coincided with moves in both countries to dismantle Iranian-backed proxy groups.