If the past is prologue, the sentence will not be motivated by fairness or justice; it will be the harshest sentence Merchan can impose without risking reversal or the possibility that it will help Trump’s electoral prospects.

Such a vindictive sentence could take many forms, excluding actual prison time. Sentencing Trump, a first-time offender, to a prison term for a minor bookkeeping crime would virtually assure a reversal and an outcry from independent voters. 

But one possibility would be for the judge to impose a significant prison sentence — say two years — and then suspend it. A suspended sentence would send the message that the judge regarded the crime as serious and warranting imprisonment, but, because of the special circumstances of the case, making a presidential candidate actually serve time would be inappropriate.