In the ongoing internal conflict in Syria, Israel has chosen to remain on the sidelines, refraining from military intervention as long as its security interests are not threatened. For Israel, both the Assad regime and jihadist groups are seen as equally detrimental.
Currently, the U.S. and Israel are observing the clashes in Syria between armed factions referred to as "rebels," most of whom are jihadist terrorist organizations, and Syrian army forces, without direct military involvement. This comes a week after the rebels launched a surprise offensive.
The Biden administration has reiterated its stance on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, labeling him a "brutal dictator with blood on his hands." American officials express concerns about potential anarchy in Syria, prompting the U.S. to restrain rebel attacks, especially given the presence of American troops in the region.
According to U.S. sources, senior Biden administration officials have recently engaged in discussions with Turkish officials, including a conversation between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
The U.S. is particularly wary of the strengthening of jihadist groups in Syria, most of which are associated with ISIS. For years, it has waged a relentless war against al-Qaeda and ISIS in the Middle East.
WHAT ABOUT ISRAELI INTERESTS IN THIS CONTEXT?
Israeli officials are carefully monitoring the situation without direct involvement. However, they have several key interests:
1. Weakening the Iranian Resistance Axis: This includes any military presence in Syria, such as Shiite militias and Hezbollah.
2. Preventing Arms Transfers from Iran: Israel aims to block shipments of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah via Syrian territory. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently warned Assad that he is "playing with fire" if he allows Iran to transfer weapons through Syria.
3. Preventing Shiite Militias Near Israel's Border: Israel seeks to keep Iranian Revolutionary Guard units and Shiite militias away from its borders.
4. Preventing the Fall of Strategic Weapons to Rebels: Israel is particularly concerned about the potential for chemical weapons falling into the hands of the rebels. Intelligence suggests that such weapons are stored at the Scientific Studies and Research Center (SERS) in Safira and at a facility in Aleppo, both of which have been targeted in past Israeli airstrikes aimed at preventing the development of weapons of mass destruction.
Despite Syria's 2013 commitment to dismantle its chemical weapons stockpile, it is believed that Assad's regime has maintained a residual capability and continued secret development. A report from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) indicated that Syria resumed the use of chemical weapons in 2018 and has since increased its stockpile.
Security officials argue that the rebels have exploited Hezbollah's weakened position in Syria, exacerbated by significant losses inflicted by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Russian military's focus on the war in Ukraine. With Turkish assistance, the rebels have managed to surprise Assad's regime.
From Israel and the U.S.'s perspective, both the Assad regime and jihadist groups represent a significant threat, and therefore, Israel should not favor one over the other. The Israeli interest lies in ensuring that both sides continue to inflict mutual losses for as long as possible. Any development that strengthens the Iranian axis in Syria poses a threat to Israel.
Security sources emphasize that Israel must vigilantly uphold its interests in Syria. If accurate intelligence is available, it should target sites where the Syrian army holds chemical weapons to prevent them from falling into the hands of the rebels, who may use them against Israel in the future.