Captured Hamas documents reveal that as early as January 2023, the group saw Israel’s internal turmoil as a rare opportunity for launching a large-scale military conflict.
The assessment, attributed to Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and senior political bureau member Muhammad Nazzar, shows that Hamas viewed the judicial reform crisis not just as a political dispute, but as a foundational threat to Israeli society—akin to the vulnerability seen before the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
According to Sinwar’s speech from January 14, 2023, Israel’s new right-wing government posed a grave threat to Palestinian interests, particularly concerning Al-Aqsa Mosque and the West Bank.
But more importantly, Sinwar identified Israel’s internal divisions as signs of looming collapse. He pointed to unprecedented political instability, public calls by former Prime Minister Ehud Barak to topple the government, and growing alienation within the international community as key indicators of weakness.