Captured Hamas documents reveal that as early as January 2023, the group saw Israel’s internal turmoil as a rare opportunity for launching a large-scale military conflict.
The assessment, attributed to Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and senior political bureau member Muhammad Nazzar, shows that Hamas viewed the judicial reform crisis not just as a political dispute, but as a foundational threat to Israeli society—akin to the vulnerability seen before the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
According to Sinwar’s speech from January 14, 2023, Israel’s new right-wing government posed a grave threat to Palestinian interests, particularly concerning Al-Aqsa Mosque and the West Bank.
But more importantly, Sinwar identified Israel’s internal divisions as signs of looming collapse. He pointed to unprecedented political instability, public calls by former Prime Minister Ehud Barak to topple the government, and growing alienation within the international community as key indicators of weakness.
By April 2023, Hamas’s assessment sharpened. Nazzar stated that internal Israeli fragmentation could lead to its downfall. He claimed Israel's military and leadership were worn out, domestic militias would clash, and even the U.S. was acting against Netanyahu’s government, granting a “green light” to the mass protests.
This, in their view, shifted the balance of power in favor of the Palestinians.
Sinwar, in a follow-up conversation, described Israel as facing an “unprecedented unraveling of its social glue.” He mocked attempts at compromise over judicial reform, calling them superficial and ineffective. He compared the current crisis to a deeper one than 1973, suggesting Israel was more vulnerable than it had been on the eve of that war.
Both Sinwar and Nazzar believed that Al-Aqsa Mosque could serve as a “trigger” for conflict, rallying support across the Arab and Islamic world. They also emphasized readiness for war, boasting of military preparations and increased coordination with allies such as Iran.
Hamas celebrated its role in destabilizing the Israeli home front and believed it had reached a historic turning point.
The leadership argued that the internal collapse of Israel, Western fatigue, and a sympathetic Islamic world created a window for a “multi-front confrontation.” According to Sinwar, Hamas had the capability to “reshape the Middle East,” and he assured his followers that when the time came, the majority of the Muslim world would stand with them.
The documents were published by Israel’s Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center on March 13, 2025.
They offer a chilling glimpse into Hamas’s strategic thinking ahead of the October 7 massacre and highlight the degree to which the group calculated Israel’s political instability into its decision to go to war.
NEWSRAEL: We will be publishing soon the quoted materials of Yahya Sinwar and top Hamas officials from this report.