For weeks, the focus was on how Iran would shape events in Lebanon. Now, Segal argues, the more important issue may be how developments in Lebanon are affecting Iran’s calculations.

According to the assessment presented, Tehran and Hezbollah became increasingly confident after the phone conversation between Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and reports that Israel had been restrained from attacking Dahiyeh. Iran and Hezbollah apparently interpreted this as proof that Trump does not want to return to war with Iran, regardless of how aggressively they threaten or act.

That confidence may explain Hezbollah’s willingness to fire rockets at northern Israel and Iran’s public threats to attack Israel if Beirut or Dahiyeh were targeted.