The confrontation between Israel and Iran is escalating. Israel is now openly signaling that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his son Mojtaba, seen as his heir, are legitimate assassination targets.

This marks a shift. For years, both Israel and the U.S. avoided direct threats against Iran’s top leadership. But in recent days, Israeli officials publicly declared that killing Khamenei is no longer unthinkable — a major change in the rules of engagement.

Since the start of its war against Iran, Israel has eliminated top Revolutionary Guard and military figures. Now, attention may turn to the supreme leader himself and his powerful son.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced he has ordered the IDF to intensify strikes on regime targets in Iran — aiming to destabilize the regime and increase deterrence amid ongoing missile threats and efforts to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program.

Khamenei is no mere figurehead — he holds sweeping religious, military, and political authority: appointing army chiefs, approving foreign policy, and even deciding if elections occur. Since 1989, he’s also served as the symbol of Shiite identity and national unity.

According to Iran’s constitution, a temporary leadership council would form if the Supreme Leader dies, until the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body, appoints a successor. But in practice, the Revolutionary Guard — which dominates Iran’s security and economy — is expected to seize control, especially if Khamenei is assassinated.

In a June 16 interview with ABC News, PM Netanyahu called Iran an “existential threat” and, when asked about assassinating Khamenei, replied: “It won’t escalate – it will end the conflict.”

However, Israeli security officials caution that simply killing Khamenei and Mojtaba might not destabilize the regime. They argue that Israel must also eliminate the entire “Guardian Council” and “Assembly of Experts” — about 100 people — to truly collapse Iran’s ideological and religious core.

IRAN’S RULING STRUCTURE RESTS ON FOUR PILLARS:

Ali Khamenei – Supreme source of authority.

Mojtaba Khamenei – His son and heir, closely tied to the Revolutionary Guard.

Guardian Council – Ensures Iran remains an Islamic state and blocks reforms.

Assembly of Experts – Appoints the Supreme Leader and grants religious legitimacy.

Security officials believe a joint Mossad-IDF operation could realistically bring down the regime. Such a collapse could shake Iran as profoundly as the 1979 revolution.

Still, success depends on public response, remaining regime-loyal forces, and international pressure.

KEY RISKS FOR IRAN INCLUDE:

- Power vacuum – No immediate mechanism to appoint a new leader.

- Power struggles – Between the Revolutionary Guard, conservatives, and reformists.

- Popular uprising – Chaos and weakness may spark mass protests.

Officials warn that if the regime’s ideological core collapses without a prepared alternative, Iran could descend into anarchy. In that case, the Revolutionary Guard may attempt a military takeover to restore order.

Such a drawn-out crisis would benefit Israel short-term — forcing Iran inward, unable to attack Israel or revive its nuclear program.