The war Benjamin Netanyahu has been steering toward for his entire political career is now 21 days old. Has it changed his political prospects?
In terms of seats, not really. In Channel 12's latest poll, the Likud has gained two, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! has risen by one, and Bennett has lost one. Net the other shifts and the numbers look identical to the past few months: 51 seats for Netanyahu’s coalition, 59 for the opposition, and the Arab parties holding 10.
Where things get interesting is suitability for prime minister. Netanyahu has gained an additional six points over Bennett, stretching the lead to 16 points—44 percent to 28 percent. It is the largest advantage he has held at any point during this term.
The shift is unbalancing the opposition. For the first time, the opposition’s top candidate for prime minister is not Bennett but former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Netanyahu still leads him, but by a narrower margin—43 percent to 31 percent. Before anyone gets to face Netanyahu, the opposition has to have it’s own election.
