Israel is maintaining firm control and oversight over the Rafah crossing area, based on long-standing security assessments that the primary threat does not lie above ground, but beneath it.
Israeli officials view control over the tunnel networks in Rafah and along the Philadelphi Corridor as critical to curbing weapons smuggling and preventing the rearmament of Hamas. If Israel maintains effective control of these underground routes, security officials believe it could significantly reduce the flow of arms and resources that have fueled Hamas’ military buildup over the years.
Beyond security concerns, Israeli oversight of the crossing also creates a potential humanitarian and demographic shift. On one hand, it allows Israel to block the entry of hostile elements; on the other, it opens a window for the exit — and potentially even emigration — of Gazans who wish to leave the Strip, a development that Egypt has consistently prevented until now.
Attention is now turning to how Cairo will respond once movement through the crossing resumes. Early assessments suggest that demand to leave Gaza is likely to far exceed any desire to enter, a dynamic that could place Egypt under immediate political and logistical pressure.