Hezbollah is striving to preserve its power as the Lebanese government moves to disarm it, calibrating pressure while avoiding direct confrontation with civilians or the army. Israeli security sources describe deep frustration inside the organization, reflected in statements by senior figures and in motorcycle convoys leaving Beirut’s al-Dahiya stronghold toward the airport. The mounting presence of these convoys across the city serves as an early warning of how the situation could escalate if the disarmament push intensifies.

The group frames disarmament as “strategic suicide.” As Lebanese commentator Ali Khidar wrote in the Hezbollah-aligned Al-Akhbar on August 9, Hezbollah regards any attempt to strip its arsenal as the removal of Lebanon’s “last line of defense.” Even so, it remains cautious: closely coordinating with the Shiite Amal Movement, refusing to disarm, staying in government, steering clear of clashes with the army, and avoiding steps that could trigger civil war.

Against the backdrop of Israel’s preparations to conquer the entire Gaza Strip, Hezbollah has been forced to pull back from the Gaza front after heavy Israeli blows. It accepted a ceasefire roughly ten months ago and has refrained from attacking Israel, even as Israeli operations in southern Lebanon continue to degrade its military infrastructure and target members of the Radwan Force.