The agreement to begin the release of hostages in exchange for a 42-day ceasefire—intended to transition into a permanent one—includes significant concessions. These involve the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel, including numerous convicted murderers, the return of the Palestinian population to northern Gaza, the influx of humanitarian aid, the reduction of the IDF’s presence in Gaza, potentially leading to a withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor, and Hamas retaining its control over Gaza. The agreement leaves Israel with mixed emotions—joy at the anticipated return of hostages is tempered by frustration at the high cost.

Conversely, Hamas and its supporters across the Arab, Islamic, and broader world are celebrating. They have achieved many of their objectives, most notably securing the continuation of their rule in Gaza while ensuring the release of prisoners from Israeli jails.

Israel achieved one-and-a-half of its war objectives: Hamas suffered military but not political damage, and the agreement provides no guarantees that Hamas will not rebuild its capabilities to resume attacks against Israel from Gaza eventually. On the other hand, Hamas achieved almost all its war goals, albeit at a very high price—far more significant than it initially estimated—but not one that undermines its ability to claim the October 7, 2023 attack as a justified and successful operation. This is likely to bolster its standing among the Palestinian public and enhance the influence of radical Islam more broadly.