Since the beginning of this war, one question has lingered above all others: Will the Iranian people rise up and bring down the Ayatollah regime?
From the outset, the answer was clear—not yet. Not because the desire wasn’t there, but because the opportunity wasn’t. The regime demonstrated, brutally, that it was both capable and willing to crush dissent at any cost.
We saw this most clearly during two days in January, when security forces reportedly opened fire on unarmed protesters in the streets. Some estimates suggest that as many as 40,000 civilians were killed in those 48 hours. If accurate, that would represent a staggering level of violence—far exceeding the scale of civilian casualties seen in Gaza over years of war.
For years, the equation inside Iran has been simple: the will of the people versus the guns of the regime. And every time, the regime’s firepower—and its readiness to use it—tipped the balance.