Turkey’s recent mediation efforts between the United States and Iran are driven primarily by national self-interest and long-term ambition, according to assessments by Israeli and Western intelligence officials. In Jerusalem, the prevailing view is that Ankara is acting to protect its own security, economy, and regional standing—rather than out of a commitment to broad regional stability.

Israeli security officials assess that Ankara fears a full-scale regional war, which could destabilize Turkey internally. Intelligence estimates warn that a US-Iran military confrontation could trigger four major risks for Turkey: increased activity by pro-Iranian militias near its borders, a severe energy crisis due to reliance on regional oil and gas, a refugee influx from Iran, and heightened Kurdish separatist aspirations. From Ankara’s perspective, the Kurdish issue is particularly sensitive, as any collapse of Iranian authority could inspire similar demands among Kurds inside Turkey.

Turkey’s mediation is seen as part of a broader national security doctrine that favors active diplomacy to manage strategic threats. Over the past decade, Ankara has been surrounded by conflict zones—from Syria and Iraq to Ukraine and the eastern Mediterranean—reinforcing its desire to prevent escalation into wider wars that could drag Turkey in directly.