Israel has reportedly urged President Donald Trump to delay any immediate military strike on Iran—not out of diplomatic hesitation or military shortfall, but following a sober intelligence assessment.
According to Israeli evaluations, the current moment is strategically unfavorable and unlikely to achieve the most ambitious goal: collapse of the Iranian regime.
Israeli intelligence assesses that regime change in Iran hinges less on public anger and more on the loyalty of the state’s coercive institutions—above all the regular army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. While Iran has seen major protest waves in recent years, these have receded not because grievances vanished, but because the regime proved willing to deploy overwhelming force.
As long as the army and IRGC remain cohesive and willing to suppress protests, Israeli analysts judge the likelihood of regime collapse to be low. History suggests authoritarian systems fall not when demonstrations erupt, but when security forces fracture, refuse orders, or defect. At present, there is no credible sign of such a split.
