The assassination of Ali Larijani has shaken the centers of power at the top of the Iranian regime and placed Mojtaba Khamenei before a critical test of survival, while the status of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders continues to strengthen
Western intelligence sources assess that, despite Israel’s successful assassinations of Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and Iran’s de facto leader, as well as Basij commander Gholam Soleimani and his deputy, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, and the senior circle of IRGC commanders are not prepared to surrender or seek a ceasefire.
According to these assessments, any serious discussion of a full ceasefire in the current war will not begin until the inner circle around Mojtaba Khamenei feels that the country has become militarily exhausted and that prolonging the war will deepen the crisis it is facing.
They note that Mohsen Rezaei, appointed by Mojtaba Khamenei as his senior military adviser, plays a significant role in the decision-making process.
