According to former Mossad counterterror division head Oded Ailam, now a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs, a troubling picture is emerging: a mix of economic strain, fear of internal unrest, and political uncertainty is shaking stability in Tehran.

Ailam says the regime is already preparing for large-scale protests. Elite forces are being deployed across major cities, internet access is restricted, and advanced monitoring systems are tracking civilians—even through text messages. At the same time, Iran appears increasingly reliant on external forces, including Shiite militias and foreign elements, suggesting growing concern over losing internal control.

But the real pressure point is economic. Sanctions, declining oil revenues, and losses of hundreds of millions of dollars per day are hitting the regime’s ability to sustain itself. Historically, this is the most dangerous stage—when even soldiers struggle to support their families.