AMIT SEGAL: A very senior Israeli official told me last night, “It’s highly doubtful that the Iranians’ minimum will meet Trump’s maximum”
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To put it simply: expectations in Israel for a negotiated end to this war are currently close to zero—and here’s why

Trump has said something consistently about Iran for years: they have never won a war, but they have never lost a negotiation. 

So why would he suddenly leave his home field—the battlefield, where he is the strongest player in the world—to play an away game, negotiations, where the Iranians are world-class operators? He would only do so if there were a great deal to gain.

Look at the Hamas example. In a recent round of negotiations, Hamas agreed to something few in Israel thought possible: returning all the hostages while retaining control over most of the Gaza Strip. If something comparable is on the table with Iran—shutting down uranium enrichment, transferring enriched material out of the country, halting missile production, reopening global shipping lanes, even alternatives to the regime—then Trump has an incentive to go all in.

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