The guiding principle of “Velayat-e Faqih” — the religious-political doctrine placing ultimate authority in the hands of the Supreme Leader — is now under serious internal challenge. 

Once a symbol of unity and legitimacy, it is increasingly seen by Iranians as out of touch and a source of failure.

Public confidence in Supreme Leader Khamenei is waning. Security officials say a deep crisis of trust is taking hold, fueled by glaring discrepancies between Iran's claimed military strength and its actual performance. Israeli intelligence penetrations led to the assassinations of senior officials and nuclear scientists, while continued U.S. sanctions have worsened economic hardship.

Rumors spreading online suggest growing panic within the leadership. Khamenei allegedly emerged from hiding only after 22 days, raising concerns about his health and safety. His son Mojtaba, viewed as heir apparent, has not been seen publicly either.

The war, which began on June 13, saw unprecedented Israeli strikes on Revolutionary Guard leaders, missile bases, and nuclear sites. The Trump administration supported the attacks, directly targeting key facilities like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Once sources of national pride, these sites are now symbols of regime vulnerability.

Israeli intelligence believes the war strengthened opposition forces inside Iran and may pave the way for internal reform or upheaval. Meanwhile, both the U.S. and Israel remain committed to their strategy of "mowing the grass" — consistently degrading Iran's military and nuclear capabilities.

Collapse from within due to mounting public and international pressure.

Internal reform, including bringing moderates into power — though this currently seems unlikely.

Hardline persistence, even at the cost of deeper international isolation and future conflict.

Iran’s gamble on Hamas' “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation also backfired. While it temporarily disrupted Israel-Saudi normalization, Hamas is now losing control of Gaza. The Trump administration is renewing normalization efforts across the Arab world, weakening Iran’s regional influence.

As Tehran tries to exploit the Palestinian issue for leverage, its sway over Palestinian factions is clearly diminishing. Iran’s status as a regional power is under real threat — and what comes next may define its future for decades.