Dr. Martin Sherman warned that the conflicts involving Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas cannot be separated from one another. Each is part of the same regional struggle, with Iran at its center.
Sherman argued that President Donald Trump’s instinct to avoid prolonged wars may be pushing Washington toward premature ceasefires and negotiations that leave Israel’s enemies capable of rebuilding. Sanctions and diplomatic pressure, he said, cannot force ideological regimes to abandon the goals that define them.
The Iranian regime has survived years of economic pressure, just as other isolated dictatorships have endured sanctions while their populations suffered. Delaying a decisive outcome gives Tehran additional time to develop new weapons, rebuild damaged capabilities and create threats that do not yet appear on current intelligence maps.
According to Sherman, there will be no conventional “Trump-style deal” capable of permanently resolving the Iranian threat. Regime replacement may be necessary, but even that might not be sufficient. He suggested that Iran’s future could resemble the collapse of Yugoslavia or the Soviet Union, with the country’s different ethnic populations breaking away after the failure of the ideology holding them together.