Ahead of the expected visit to Saudi Arabia this week by US President Donald Trump, the well-known French newspaper "Le Figaro" published an editorial in which it was claimed that the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, is now forced to take into account the position of his people, who oppose normalization with Israel.

According to the newspaper, in recent months Saudi Arabia has been expressing its willingness to recognize Israel, but on the condition that it commits to "an irreversible and credible move that will lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state." However, due to the current Israeli government's firm opposition to the establishment of such a state, this goal seems more distant than ever.

According to the report, on the eve of Trump's visit, it appears that the Saudi kingdom has already made a decision. But it is not only Trump and the Israelis who may be disappointed - but also Macron. Macron hopes to convince bin Salman to take a step towards recognizing Israel at an international conference in New York in June. The upcoming summit, which will be jointly led by France and Saudi Arabia, will promote the idea of ​​a two-state solution and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

Political sources in Jerusalem say that the massacre committed by Hamas in the communities surrounding Gaza on October 7, 2023, changed the equation. During the Biden administration, Saudi Arabia and Israel were on the verge of signing a historic normalization agreement, and Hamas, on the orders of Iran, succeeded in thwarting the advanced negotiations between the two countries through a surprise attack on Israel.

Since then, the talks have been frozen following the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Bin Salman, who is running the kingdom's affairs in place of his ailing father, has been forced to take into account the anger of the Saudi public following the Israeli bombing of Gaza.

Security sources in Israel say that the Saudi street is looking at what is happening in the Gaza Strip and identifies with the Palestinians. The mood in Saudi Arabia is that Israel is waging a "war of extermination" of the Palestinians In the Gaza Strip, and this feeling is an addition to the anti-Israeli culture in Saudi Arabia for many years.

Saudi journalist Abdullah Al-Ataibi, in an article published in "Asharq Al-Awsat" yesterday, wrote the following about Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia: "Propaganda by the failed does not harm the successful. Some argued against the 'Deal of the Century' and believed that Saudi Arabia had neglected the Palestinian issue, but developments in the last two years have proven the complete opposite. They also showed that Saudi Arabia's influence on the White House is no less than Israel's."

Last week, Hussein al-Sheikh, deputy chairman of the PA, Mahmoud Abbas, visited Saudi Arabia. He met with bin Salman to coordinate positions on the Palestinian issue in preparation for Trump's visit this week.

Despite official support for the Palestinians, any public expression of this is banned on the Saudi street. The authorities warn against wearing Palestinian shirts, giving pro-Palestinian sermons in mosques, or even raising the Palestinian flag in Mecca. Saudi security forces have been instructed to prevent any demonstration of solidarity with Gaza.

Israeli security sources estimate that the Saudi royal family is acting in accordance with the mood in the kingdom and the Arab world. At the moment, anger against Israel is immense because of the war in the Gaza Strip, but despite this, the Saudi royal family is planning for the long term. Saudi Arabia has not abandoned the idea of ​​normalization in the long term. The elites The political and economic sectors miss the period before October 7, 2023, and rabbinical visits to the country are still ongoing.

According to them, due to his support for the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, Bin Salman is strengthening his legitimacy as a leader, but if Israel overthrows Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip, he will have to be pragmatic and find ways to reach Israel in order to advance the idea of ​​normalization.

Regional stability is Bin Salman's primary goal, but ultimately, Hamas undermined it in order to prevent normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia under the guidance of Iran. This was one of the reasons for the massacre in the communities around Gaza on October 7.

Political sources in Jerusalem say that Bin Salman needs to understand that a Palestinian state will not be established, and Israel will not recognize it. Trump cannot impose this on Israel, and Bin Salman must recognize this reality.

According to reports in the Arab media, public opinion polls from December 2023 indicate On widespread opposition to Saudi-Israeli relations: In one poll, only 20% supported normalization. In another, 96% demanded that Arab states sever ties with Israel.

The "Iron Swords" war changed the Middle East. Iran, which was previously considered a common enemy for Israel and Saudi Arabia, is no longer such in Saudi Arabia's eyes since the reconciliation agreement between them in 2023. Bin Salman even recently sent his brother, Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, as a special envoy to the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, with a message in which Saudi Arabia commits not to participate in American attacks against Iran.

For Saudi Arabia, a tripartite agreement between it and the US and Israel is no longer on the agenda at this stage. Bin Salman is striving to accept parts of his original outline: a large advanced weapons deal with the Trump administration, and acceptance of a nuclear reactor that would allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium.

He is not threatened from home or abroad – unless he brings Israel too close. He even expressed concern about this, when he declared that he did not want to be the “Saudi Sadat,” referring to the Egyptian president who was assassinated in 1981 following the peace agreement with Israel.

Bottom line, senior security sources estimate that bin Salman has cooled off from the idea of ​​normalization with Israel and it is not at all clear whether he will accept the formula of “Saudi recognition of Israel in exchange for Israeli recognition of a Palestinian state.” 

According to them, we must wait for the results of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia to see whether it will change its positions as a result of the visit, and where it wants to go in its relations with Israel. In any case, it does not appear that Israel intends to recognize a Palestinian state.