New reports point to serious cracks inside Iran’s security forces, including refusals to obey orders, desertions, and growing fear among ballistic missile crews about leaving underground launch sites.

Reports from recent days suggest a major decline in cohesion within Iran’s security establishment during the ongoing war. The concern is especially strong in the ballistic missile array, where launch crews reportedly fear emerging from underground “missile cities” because preparation for launch exposes them to immediate Israeli and US strikes.

The situation appears to have worsened after the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior figures on February 28, 2026. According to these reports, some officers abandoned their posts, and prison guards left their stations. Efforts by the IRGC to mobilize reservists in March also reportedly met resistance, with many failing to report. Some allegedly used call-up orders as cover to move their families toward border areas.