The prevailing assessment is that a more favorable opportunity would arise during a renewed wave of internal unrest—one in which the regime’s coercive capacity is strained, legitimacy is eroded, and cracks within the security forces become more plausible.
Israel has reportedly urged President Trump to postpone any immediate military action against Iran. Contrary to much of the public speculation surrounding this position, Israeli decision-making is not rooted in diplomatic hesitation or internal pressure,or lack of defense systems but in a sober intelligence assessment. Israel’s intelligence establishment has concluded that the current moment is strategically unfavorable for a strike and that such an action would be unlikely to achieve its most ambitious objective: the collapse of the Iranian regime.
At the heart of this assessment lies a clear-eyed understanding of how authoritarian systems survive. Regime change in Iran is not determined by popular dissatisfaction alone, but by the continued loyalty of the state’s coercive institutions most notably the regular army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While Iran has experienced widespread protests in recent years, including demonstrations that openly challenged the legitimacy of the ruling system, these movements have temporarily receded. This is not because public grievances have disappeared, but because the regime has demonstrated a willingness to use unprecedented and brutal force to suppress dissent.
Israeli intelligence analysts assess that as long as the Iranian military and the IRGC remain cohesive and willing to shoot protesters, the likelihood of regime collapse remains low. History has shown repeatedly that authoritarian governments fall not when protests erupt, but when security forces fracture, refuse orders, or shift allegiance. At present, there is no credible indication that such a split is imminent within Iran’s power structure.
