ICYMI: The cost of Saudi vision and the cost of war

Data released by Saudi Arabia’s Finance Ministry for the first quarter of the year reveals a massive deficit of $33.5 billion in just one quarter. Government spending surged to $103.1 billion, while revenues totaled only $69.6 billion.

The core issue is not a collapse in revenue. Oil revenues dipped slightly to $38.6 billion, while non-oil revenues rose modestly to $31 billion. In other words, Saudi Arabia is not facing a revenue crisis as much as an exceptionally high pace of spending.

The most notable category is defense. Military spending jumped by 26%, reaching $17.2 billion for the quarter, compared to $13.7 billion during the same period last year—an increase of $3.5 billion within a year.

However, simplistic interpretations should be avoided. Saudi Arabia entered 2026 with an expansionary fiscal policy driven by Vision 2030 projects, including major investments in infrastructure, tourism, logistics, and industry. At the same time, ongoing regional tensions add a clear layer of cost: protecting energy facilities, maritime security, ports, trade routes, interception systems, and preparing for escalation scenarios.

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