Regime change in Iran? Absolutely.

Trump was wrong in keeping this death cult in place. A death cult that has killed more of its own people than Americans and Israelis combined, and that number is enormous.

The history behind Israel’s essential response to Iran’s war of elimination against the Jewish state.

Between 2010-2012 Bibi repeatedly pushed for Israeli military strikes against Iran’s developing nuclear sites. Every time he was blocked by Israel’s own military & intelligence leadership. In 2010 it was IDF Gabi Ashkenazi who argued we didn’t have the operational capacity to successfully execute the plan. In 2011 the intelligence community led by Meir Dagan opposed and he was backed by ministers Moshe Yaalon and Yuval Steinitz.

By 2012 Bibi was blocked both at home and by America. So it was postponed until this month. But now Bibi admits everything lined up in such a manner as to make the attack not only possible but necessary – a classic now or never moment. And it began to weld together, ironically, on 7/10 2023.

Let’s go back to 1994. Iran’s grand strategy rested on 2 foundational pillars – the first pillar was the creation of a ‘ring of fire’ around Israel, a regional network of proxy forces capable of threatening and injuring Israel from multiple directions. Hezbollah was supposed to be the cornerstone but with Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Palestinian terror groups in territory occupied by the pa.

Iran also worked through Assad’s Syria, Iraq via Shiite militia, and add the Houthis in Yemen.

Jordan’s king Abdullah was worried by what he called the Shia crescent from Tehran through Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut encircling Israel.

The 2^nd pillar was their nuclear program. This strategy was clear. They made no secret of it. Israel first, America second. They dominate the middle east especially the Sunni states out of fear of their nuclear threat. Convert or die.

and they will conquer Europe both with external threats and internal disruption. (you have that establishing itself right now in your country but you are too afraid to confront it.)

However, the pathological Yahya Sinwar ruined everything by placing his ambition ahead of the Iranian master plan. That 7/10 Hamas “success” turned out to be the beginning of the end of the Iranian grand strategy.

In response to the genocidal Hamas invasion, Israel made a grand strategy of our own. It was to piece by piece chop off the tentacles of the Iranian octopus and then target the head. Deal with each component of the Iranian strategy individually to take out its sting and then go for the brain.

Some in Israel advised going for Hezbollah first. This was seen as he greater existential threat than Hamas even after 7/10. Hezbollah was better equipped and better trained than Hamas but, with the hostage issue, Israel had to strike first against Hamas.

After degrading Hamas, Israel was able to turn its attention and reservists on Hezbollah in Lebanon, and we opened that operation not with an expected ground invasion but an amazing intelligence operation. Israel had somehow managed to give all the top Hezbollah commanders down to the middle grade officers, hundreds of them, an explosive device and pressed the button that eliminated them. On top of that, Israeli intelligence tracked their main spiritual leader Nasrallah to a underground location in a luxury district in Beirut and although not having b2 bombers we dropped enough bunker busting material to wipe out the top political and military level of Hezbollah. This made it easier and safer for our group troops to mop up the lower-level Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon.

This Israeli ingenuity played out again on 32 July 2024 when Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was sleeping in his bed in Tehran. He never woke up.

The depletion of Hezbollah was completed by Israel’s targeting of Iranian shipments being flown into Damascus airport which also contributes to the fall of Assad in Syria. With him gone, Iran’s access to Hezbollah via Syria was cut off. Hezbollah is now hanging out to dry. Easy pickings for Israel.

To be on the safe side, Israel destroyed all of Assad’s military assets. We were not going to allow these threatening weapons fall into the hands of an ISIS takeover of Syria and have them used against us.

What sharpened our attention on Iran, even with Hamas and the Houthis to deal with, was the intelligence that Iran was rushing to a nuclear weapon. On 12 June 2025 the IAEA confirmed that Iran was in serious breach of its nuclear obligations and was racing to the doomsday weapon. Even at that stage Israel could not depend on the international community, nor the un, to block Iran’s access to that existential threat to Israel. It did, however, turn the head of trump who had also sat on the fence.

For more than 20 years Benjamin Netanyahu had been banging on every door about the danger of Iran with a nuclear weapon, but all the world leaders nodded and went back to sleep. Two world leaders, Obama and Biden, did worse than go back to sleep. They gifted a deviant Iran a huge amount of money that funded the further development of their nuclear program,

Iran’s proxy ring of fire was being extinguished, Assad fell, and Iran was rushing to the bomb.

Israel saw a weak world unable to offer a viable deterrent against the nuclear Iranian threat, so Israel had to go it alone.

What tiny Israel achieved against Iran was quite extraordinary. In a repeat of the Ismail Haniyeh example, we eliminated the upper echelon of Iran’s military leadership and nuclear scientists as they slept in their beds. Then we systematically went after their massive missile storage facilities, their transporters and launchers to reduce the missile threat against our civilian population. Then we began to degrade their nuclear facilities as much as we could without the massive bunker busting bombs of which only America had exclusive access.

Trump was extremely arrogant after US bombers destroyed Fordow and other nuclear locations. He even insultingly used the “f” word against Israel.

He showed a lack of gratitude or understanding that it was the Israeli pilots that gave his B2s a sterile unchallenged sky in which to surgically attack their targets thanks to the dangerous advance work of Israeli pilots that flew twice a day for weeks over a thousand miles to their allocated targets to create the sterile environment that kept US pilots perfectly safe in their one-off mission.

Regime change.

Trump was for regime change in Iran before he was against it. He posted on truth social, “why wouldn’t there be regime change in Iran. MIGA!”

Then after bombing Iran’s nuclear sites, he’s against it. I think he is wrong, dead wrong on that issue.

I make the comparison of regime change in Iran to the allies in World War Two.

Can you imagine a scenario in which the allied forces pushed their way across Europe against Nazi Germany in 1944 and decided to stop at Germany’s border because their political leaders said they were against regime change. That it was enough to destroy the German air force and panzer divisions. Can you imagine a scenario in which they would have allowed Hitler to re-emerge from his Berlin bunker? Of course not. So why treat the death cult of an Islamic revolutionary regime in Iran differently?

Armed with the expectation that a wounded regime will turn to other means to execute their death wish surely regime change is essential for the peace and security of a world at risk?

Also, do you have no compassion for the suffering people of Iran who are yearning for outside salvation. The regime are already rounding up hundreds of Iranians and making them disappear in their numerous notorious prisons.

We in Israel are super sensitive on this issue. We are first in line to become the next victims of the wounded beast that is Iran. We are super sensitive to the need to remove the infection before it metastasizes to become, once again, a life-threatening cancer.

Surely it is better to surgically remove than cancer before it returns to kill us.

I quote Yaakov Amidror, former head of Israel’s National Security Council and a senior fellow at the Jerusalem institute for strategy & security who said, “we must not allow threats to develop without cutting them off before they materialize.”

Amidror reminds us that our mistake in not dealing with Hamas and Hezbollah in their early stage of development came at an enormous cost in mainly civilian lives.

The Amidror doctrine is preventing threats from materializing is more important than preserving peace and quiet while the enemy is gearing up for war.

Trump made that mistake in his first presidency when he ordered the elimination of Qassim Suleimani in January 2020. He did it as a warning to the Iranian regime who replaced Soleimani and made their IRGC bigger and stronger. He did it, he said, because Suleimani had killed over 600 Americans since the Iraq war of 2003. That was true, but Suleimani was only the front man of the regime and replaceable. His death did not freeze Iran’s regional and global ambitions.

Trump was wrong then and if he thinks that knocking out Iran’s nuclear facilities will stop this death cult, he is fatally wrong again.

As a result of the damage we inflicted on Iran, that they will turn to covert terror attacks against American and Israeli targets in soft spots in Europe, the Middle East, and America. We have seen that behavior in the past in places like Beirut, Iraq, Argentina. Iran also targeted us officials including John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, from the previous trump administration, and they made a couple of failed attempts against trump in Pennsylvania and Florida in 2024 during his presidential campaign.

If he thinks they are going to leave him alone because he is working for peace, he is wrong. I sincerely hope he is not dead wrong.

Trump negotiating for peace with Iran reminds me of Neville Chamberlain who thought he could negotiate with Hitler and Nazi Germany in the 30’s. There are some regimes you cannot negotiate with especially those attached by an umbilical cord to an obsessive religious and ideological death cult. This is what links, unites, and drives Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, ISIS, Al Qaida, the list is endless.

Just look at what is happening in Sudan where the death toll, the rape toll, the famine toll, the displacement toll, makes Gaza look like child’s play – but this is a death zone you never hear about from your politicians and media.

Why not? Because there are no jews to slander in protection of a death cult they frame as victims of Israeli aggression, oppression, occupation, or other liberal Marxist socialist trigger words.

Forgotten that its Iran, Hamas, the PA, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Houthis that initiate the aggression, the murders. And they did it after Israel had made massive painful concessions in land and treasure in pursuit of peace. Tey did it after we literally dragged out every Jew from Gaza, even the dead ones, and left them an agricultural and tourist paradise. And what did the Palestinians do in our absence? They killed each other.

Isn’t this what the Iranian regime is doing to their non-compliant population. They are killing them behind locked doors.

This is the regime Trump wants to make peace with.

That is not worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize.

Barry Shaw,

Israel Institute for Strategic Studies.

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