YONI BEN MENACHEM -- Syria is at a critical crossroads. After years of civil war, its state institutions are crumbling, power is shifting to local, tribal, and jihadist groups, and President Abu Muhammad al-Julani — once the leader of the terrorist group Jabhat al-Nusra — is struggling to establish centralized control.
Al-Julani, now acting as Syria's de facto interim president under the name Ahmad al-Shara, presents himself as a reformer aiming to stabilize Syria. However, his deep roots in jihadist ideology and the lack of effective state tools hinder his governance. Syria today is no longer divided between regime and opposition — it is a fragmented state where sectarian and local rivalries dominate, like the ongoing conflict between the Druze and Bedouin tribes in the south.
One of the biggest challenges for Al-Julani is bridging the gap between his radical Islamist past and the need for political pragmatism. Despite some local ceasefire deals and attempts at regional negotiations, his government has failed to build inclusive national institutions or restore public trust. Western and regional intelligence officials doubt his ability to lead a stable transition.
Israel, closely monitoring Syria’s collapse, views it as a growing security threat, particularly due to the increased presence of pro-Iranian forces. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently warned of Syria becoming a “source of instability,” while Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stressed the need for military readiness.