Senior Israeli officials say the fallout from the Gaza war—including high casualties, dire humanitarian conditions, and diplomatic deadlock—has widened the rift. France’s declared support for recognizing a Palestinian state has prompted Israel to threaten unilateral actions, such as applying sovereignty over parts of Judea and Samaria. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar has warned that recognition of Palestinian statehood could trigger Israeli annexation moves.

While President Emmanuel Macron has not spoken to Prime Minister Netanyahu for over a month—a sharp shift from prior frequent contact—he did host President Isaac Herzog recently, signaling that France’s dispute is with Israel’s right-wing government, not the state itself.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot told Le Monde that the summit is “balanced,” aiming to recognize both Israel and a Palestinian state, dismantle Hamas, reform the Palestinian Authority, and ensure regional normalization. But Israeli officials see it differently, viewing the move as a reward for Hamas and the PA’s support for terror.

According to Le Monde, one possible Israeli response under consideration is closing the French consulate in Jerusalem and applying formal sovereignty across all of Judea and Samaria—a de facto annexation.

One of Israel’s biggest surprises was the support of Britain and Canada for the French initiative. The three countries issued a joint statement last week saying they are considering recognizing a Palestinian state and warned of further action if Israel doesn’t end the war in Gaza and allow humanitarian aid.

Israeli officials fear the summit could create a new international consensus, exerting heavy pressure on Israel to accept a political solution—even without its consent. There’s concern France may lead the EU toward broad recognition of Palestinian statehood, isolating Israel and undermining its trade and defense ties.

Israel is now weighing measures including cutting French interests in the region, suspending defense cooperation, and excluding France from post-war Gaza reconstruction talks.

One senior Israeli source warned this is no longer just a diplomatic disagreement, but a crossroads: France seems ready to lead a Western front against Israel, even at the cost of confrontation. Netanyahu, in contrast, is counting on backing from the Trump administration.

While the Trump administration’s stance on the summit remains unclear, officials in Jerusalem believe Trump will oppose unilateral European recognition of a Palestinian state. Historically, the U.S. has maintained that such issues must be resolved through direct negotiation.

Still, Trump could surprise Israel negatively—by using pressure to push for an end to the Gaza war.