Europe is seeking to diversify its energy sources beyond the United States, and Qatar is emerging as the biggest winner—not necessarily in immediate volumes, but in status and bargaining power.
It’s important to understand the baseline: the US currently dominates Europe’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) market with roughly 60% of supply. Qatar’s share stands at about 6%. That may look small, but it is precisely the leverage Doha is exploiting to step into a growing vacuum.
Qatar’s position is set to strengthen as Europe targets zero Russian gas imports by 2027. Someone has to fill the gap. At the same time, Europe is reluctant to deepen dependence on American gas—especially amid broader political tensions, including issues swirling around Greenland. In this context, Europe has limited alternatives: by the end of the decade, Qatar and the US together are expected to control around 70% of new global LNG supply.
Doha is no naïf. It knows it can pressure Europe and lock in long-term contracts ranging from 15 to 27 years. This won’t happen overnight, but given the current state of US–Europe relations under President Donald Trump, Qatar holds an additional strategic card.