Relations between Iran and Lebanon are in a deep crisis. Tehran is trying to preserve Hezbollah as a dominant military and political force, while Beirut seeks to curb the group’s power and ultimately disarm it.
Since the November 2024 ceasefire, senior security officials say an intense debate has unfolded in Tehran and within Hezbollah: adapt to a changing regional reality—or delay decisions, preserve existing power structures, and wait for external shifts.
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marked a strategic turning point. The Syria–Iran axis, once a key force multiplier, no longer functions as such. Influence routes were disrupted, deterrence eroded, and Syria shifted from an Iranian asset to a constraint—directly affecting Hezbollah’s standing in Lebanon.
Western intelligence sources point to a growing internal rift in Tehran. President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi favor a more pragmatic approach toward the Trump administration. Opposing them is the conservative camp led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which rejects any move that could be seen as a strategic concession.
